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It\u2019s been a while, and we apologize for the delay in getting our recap out to you. California counts votes so unbelievably slowly that the winners of many of the contests in our preview remained unclear until the week of Thanksgiving; Sacramento County, the worst offender in the state, hosted two high-stakes Democrat-vs.-Democrat state legislative races where we weren\u2019t confident in a winner until the final large batch of ballots was tabulated today.
However! In happier news: because recaps are shorter, we\u2019re actually able to fit this in one email! It will proceed in (nearly) the same order as the three-part preview: first, congressional and state races; then, local elections outside of California; then, local elections in California; and finally, two cities, Austin and Phoenix, where the contests we previewed are headed to runoffs since no candidate got a majority.
The winner won\u2019t surprise many here, but the final margin might. For the most part, it seemed like everything had lined up for establishment choice Kevin Mullin after more progressive San Mateo County Supervisor David Canepa finished poorly in the first round, struggled to fundraise afterwards, and was ignored by outside groups. The one sign to the contrary was the late-game spending surge by AIPAC and crypto. We noted how odd that was at the time, and now we know why it happened. It makes you wonder what would have happened here if progressives had tried.
58%-42% is a closer margin of victory than the 63%-37% Anna Eshoo had against Rishi Kumar in 2020, but it\u2019s still not particularly close. Eshoo has demonstrated vulnerability to future challenges, just not if they\u2019re coming from Kumar.
While the LA left had a good night, Rep. Jimmy Gomez was able to keep them from making it a great one by winning his rematch with 2020 challenger David Kim. However, his 51-49 victory is even weaker than his unexpectedly close 53-47 victory in 2020, despite Gomez taking Kim\u2019s challenge more seriously this time. Gomez\u2019s vulnerability in 2020 was no fluke.
California\u2019s most expensive state legislative contest ended up going to the side with the money. Former state Insurance Commissioner Dave Jones, a progressive and a veteran of California politics since the 90s, lost by a three-point margin after the fossil fuel lobby, the health insurance lobby, realtors, landlords, and the charter school lobby spent a combined total of nearly $4 million attacking Jones and promoting Sacramento City Councilor Angelique Ashby, who in addition to all the oil money was buoyed by a last-minute endorsement from the man, the myth, the haircut himself: Gavin Newsom. Ashby is practically certain to be terrible for a Democrat, so this result stings\u2014but it\u2019s also the only big win Newsom and his moderate allies got in the state Senate, more than canceled out by progressive victories in other districts. Speaking of those\u2026
Progressives scored a huge win in the East Bay\u2019s hard-fought state Senate race. Fremont Mayor Lily Mei, the moderate candidate, should\u2019ve had this one under control\u2014she led progressive Hayward City Councilor Aisha Wahab in June, and Mei was a far more natural fit for Republicans who voted for neither Democrat in the first round than Wahab. But Wahab, not Mei, came out on top. We\u2019re excited to see what Wahab does in the Senate, and we suspect we\u2019ll be talking about her here again before too long.
The story of the night\u2014well, one of the stories\u2014in LA politics was the sudden destruction of the Hertzberg dynasty. Family patriarch Bob Hertzberg, a state senator and former speaker of the state Assembly, vacated this seat to run (unsuccessfully) for a seat on the LA County Board of Supervisors, and his son Daniel Hertzberg appeared to have an early lead running on the bold platform of \u201CDo you know who my father is?\u201D But progressive Marine veteran Caroline Menjivar thrashed him 58-42 in the second round. Bob Hertzberg was one of the coalition of moderate Democrats who helped prevent most progressive legislation from ever reaching Gavin Newsom\u2019s desk so he didn\u2019t have to veto it; instead of being replaced by his son, every bit as likely as the elder Hertzberg to give Newsom cover, he\u2019ll be replaced by a progressive.
The flow of corporate cash into Sacramento elections helped get at least one other awful Democrat elected besides Angelique Ashby. Elk Grove City Councilor Stephanie Nguyen, a fairly conservative Democrat backed to the tune of over $1 million by business interests, police unions, and the fossil fuel industry, emerged victorious over Sacramento City Councilor Eric Guerra, a fairly normal Democrat who wasn\u2019t backed by a torrent of spending from Big Oil.
Moderate Veronica Vargas consolidated the vast majority of voters who didn\u2019t already back even-more-moderate Assemb. Carlos Villapudua, but since he already got a commanding 59% in the first round, he was able to comfortably withstand Vargas\u2019s challenge. Progressives, mainstream liberals, and pro-vaccine voters more generally might take heart in Villapudua\u2019s unimpressive showing\u2014and, we hope, take note for 2024.
Well, we can\u2019t really celebrate Dr. Jasmeet Bains\u2019s victory, considering it was police unions and Republicans who probably elected her. But we can celebrate the crushing defeat of Kern County Supervisor Leticia Perez, a pro-oil conservative Democrat whose inability to win over Republicans was bewildering to us given how often she sides with them.
Rick Chavez Zbur, the establishment favorite, wasn\u2019t very different from his somewhat more progressive opponent, scientist Louis Abramson. The low stakes of this race allowed it to fly under the radar, and may have helped Abramson hold Chavez Zbur to a modest victory margin of just under ten percentage points.
Progressive-ish Assemb. Wendy Carrillo withstood a challenge from LA\u2019s newly energized anti-establishment progressive faction, beating gun violence activist Mia Livas Porter 57-43.
Robert Pullen-Miles had effectively withdrawn from the race after the June primary despite leading Tina McKinnor\u2014because McKinnor won a simultaneous special election for a mostly overlapping Assembly district, giving her the many advantages of incumbency. McKinnor\u2019s resounding win was to be expected, given that.
Once upon a time, Maria Estrada gave Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon a real scare. Then she got dumped by LA progressives over antisemitic comments she made\u2014which didn\u2019t stop her from running again, but did stop her from becoming anything more than a worn-out perennial candidate.
Nepotism case Josh Lowenthal, the son of retiring U.S. Rep. Alan Lowenthal and former Assemb. Bonnie Lowenthal, beat Long Beach City Councilor Al Austin II, who ran ever so slightly to Lowenthal\u2019s right in a race with no good options.
With so much of the pre-election coverage focusing on how similar the candidates were, we\u2019re not sure why voters were so decisively for housing-focused Emily Alvarado over sexual assault victims advocacy-focused Leah Griffin, but they were.
Democratic Party-supported liberal Leesa Manion prevailed over Jim Ferrell, a former prosecutor who wanted to turn back the clock on the county\u2019s many reforms of the last couple decades, by a margin of 58%-42%.
Seattle also had two municipal court judgeships with contested races. Public defender Pooja Vaddadi unseated punitive judge Adam Eisenberg from Position 3, 62%-38%, and reform-minded Position 7 incumbent judge Damon Hadid defeated prosecutor Nyjat Rose-Akins, who currently works in the Republican City Attorney\u2019s office, 69%-30%.
In a pleasant surprise (to us at least, after watching a couple rough election cycles in Minneapolis), one of the earliest results of the night was watching Hennepin County Public Defender Mary Moriarty prevailing after a nasty campaign between her and tough-on-crime former judge Martha Holton Dimick, 58%-42%. In the primary, Morarty was the unified choice of progressives, while a few explicitly carceral options presented themselves, making Moriarty\u2019s 36%-18% lead over Holton Dimick in that round not particularly strong on either of their parts. Moriarty\u2019s final margin of victory did shrink slightly, but she still won by a strong 16%, and was the majority choice in most of the county, even if she did do best in Minneapolis.
Megan Green, the de facto progressive leader on the St. Louis Board of Alders, has had two near misses running for a prominent office\u2014first losing 36%-31% to incumbent Lewis Reed for Board President in 2019, then a similar 35%-32% loss to Steven Roberts for an open Senate seat the next year. Since then, Roberts ran for Congress and lost horribly after a history of sexual assault allegations was resurfaced, while Reed badly lost a mayoral election and then pled guilty to bribery charges. Green has stayed on the board, spearheading a successful effort to elect a progressive majority to the board in 2021; this year, after Lewis Reed\u2019s sudden resignation from the aldermanic presidency due to the aforementioned bribery charges triggered a special election, Green jumped at the chance to flip the Board President\u2019s office, the chief remaining obstacle to board progressives and Mayor Tishaura Jones. St. Louis\u2019s new nonpartisan approval voting system called for a two-round election even though only one other candidate, moderate Ald. Jack Coatar, entered; Green won the low-turnout first round in September 54%-46%, and the high-turnout second round by a slightly wider margin. Like her prominent supporters Tishaura Jones and Rep. Cori Bush, Green won by assembling a coalition of Black North St. Louis voters and left-leaning white voters in the city\u2019s downtown further south. Her victory finally gives progressives control of St. Louis city government, although the board majority is narrow and could be deadlocked if a moderate wins the special election for Green\u2019s now-vacant ward-based seat. It\u2019s also a coup for St. Louis DSA, which now has an endorsed member elected citywide to lead the city council, in addition to the endorsed member (Cori Bush) who just won a second term representing St. Louis\u2019s congressional district. 2ff7e9595c
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